On 31 January 2019, more than a month ago, I had written:
On the basis of the 2018 GE result, Pribumi should win in the coming March by-election as it has a handsome 51% share of the votes won last year. But a few factors need to be taken into considerations, namely:
(a) the Cameron Highlands by-election saw, as shown by Bridget Welsh in MKINI's ‘Old Malaysia’ in Cameron Highlands, the Malays swinging to BN-UMNO by over 31.5%.
| Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.  |
Bridget Welsh |
One can argue that the Malays in Semenyih are not Heartland/FELDA Melayu and thus won't swing so much even if they swing.
But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.
But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.
My visitors laughed at my political prognosis but yesterday's results of the Semenyih's by-election proves me right. Wakakaka.
My glee is not so much about UMNO winning the seat back but at Pribumi losing in a Malay majority constituency.
A couple of likely outcomes from yesterday's tea leaves - Pribumi won't be so arrogant now, and that's the BEST feeling I have gained.
Though I suspect and expect Pribumi is now more likely to strive frenetically for UMNO frogs. Now, do you still remember what I say about 'frogs'? To qualify to be such a 'frog', each must be an ADUN or MP, otherwise the bloke or blokess is only a useless tadpole, wakakaka.
But alas, the succeeding victories in CH and Semenyih might have given UMNO a new leash on its political relevance for GE15, and thus a deterring hand on those wannabe-frogs among its membership, wakakaka. Not my bloody dilemma lah, wakakaka again.
But Pribumi will now have to lean more and more on the DAP and Amanah, and yes, the Dökkálfar Dwarfs of PKR. And I bet Anwar Ibrahim is laughing his guts out now.
The saddest oracle reading from the exposed entrails of the poor sembileh-ed kambing is the death knell for PSM. I am sorry for these earnest peoples but Dr Jeya, Arutchelvan and company should think of a less political role for themselves or, join PKR, DAP or even merge with PRM etc to form a bigger more noticeable Socialist Front.
And for eff-sake, change PSM's logo - the Malays don't like red by the way. Even Pribumi has been sial-ed by that colour. Only UMNO can get away with red.
